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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 8A
2013-07-06 13:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061151 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 103.9W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE...HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BETWEEN THE 18 AND 36 HOUR TIME FRAME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-06 11:12:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 08:39:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 09:05:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-07-06 10:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060836 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS. THE GFS MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-07-06 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060836 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 33 41 50 TROP DEPRESSION X 4 7 17 43 43 40 TROPICAL STORM 25 44 57 62 24 16 10 HURRICANE 74 51 35 17 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 69 43 28 15 1 X X HUR CAT 2 5 6 5 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 12(33) X(33) 1(34) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 2 5( 7) 17(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 34 2 29(31) 20(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) P VALLARTA 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 37 46(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 2 25(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 53 28(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MANZANILLO 50 3 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 23 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 7( 8) 37(45) 8(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-06 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 17.3, -103.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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