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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-06 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 17.7, -104.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 9
2013-07-06 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061454 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 9
2013-07-06 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 061454 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.3W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-06 13:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 11:52:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 09:05:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-06 13:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 17.5, -103.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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