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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-05 13:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO... As of 5:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 15.5, -101.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 4A
2013-07-05 13:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051136 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 101.6W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ERICK COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF MANZANILLO BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-05 11:12:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 08:36:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 09:05:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-07-05 10:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 7 23 42 TROP DEPRESSION 3 7 10 11 25 43 44 TROPICAL STORM 91 74 60 57 60 33 14 HURRICANE 6 17 28 29 10 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 15 23 23 9 1 X HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 5 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 1 8( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 10 24(34) 3(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) L CARDENAS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 17 9(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-07-05 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER... AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION 300/11. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR. ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND... IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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