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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-05 16:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 15.8, -102.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 5

2013-07-05 16:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 102.1W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO...AND WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2013-07-05 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 4 24 44 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 7 19 45 43 TROPICAL STORM 72 39 44 54 63 30 13 HURRICANE 28 60 52 38 14 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 27 49 40 29 13 1 X HUR CAT 2 1 8 9 6 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 16(17) 25(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 2 18(20) 17(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 15 13(28) 2(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) ZIHUATANEJO 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20(29) 1(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 5

2013-07-05 16:48:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 051448 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO...AND WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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