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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-09 01:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ERICK PASSING WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 the center of ERICK was located near 22.9, -111.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 18A
2013-07-09 01:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...CENTER OF ERICK PASSING WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 111.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERICK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-08 23:13:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 20:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 21:06:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2013-07-08 22:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 21 27 39 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 30 57 48 41 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 68 21 24 20 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-07-08 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A 1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH ERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT... LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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