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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-03 15:13:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031312 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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karen
Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-10-03 10:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030842 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF... PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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tropical
Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-10-02 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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jerry
Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-02 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE. CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES. A BROAD TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 28.2N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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