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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-10-02 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020835 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 28.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 31.1N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 32.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 34.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 38.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-10-02 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020243 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS... OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.1N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-10-01 16:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011442 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-10-01 04:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010245 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 THE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS... WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM. JERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.4N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 27.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.1N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 27.3N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 27.9N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 30.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 33.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-09-30 22:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302037 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS THAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS. JERRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD...085/6...BUT THIS MOTION IS NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN JERRY MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BE CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JERRY WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4-5 DAYS...AND RESPOND TO THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...SHOWN BY THE ECMWF MODEL...IS FOR JERRY TO WEAKEN TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY THAT TIME AND DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 27.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 27.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.7N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 26.7N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 28.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 32.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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