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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-08-03 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031456 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm GIL Forecast Discussion Number 17

2013-08-03 16:33:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 17

2013-08-03 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 031431 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm GIL Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-08-03 10:42:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm GIL Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-08-03 04:40:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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