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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-07-27 04:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BROKEN CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS OVER 26C WATERS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE LESS FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE LATER IN THE FORECAST... WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-07-27 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270232 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL CYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-07-26 22:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-07-26 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262031 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 FLOSSIE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BETTER DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE SHOULD COMMENCE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...NOW SHOW FLOSSIE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 120H DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW 285/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A FIRM RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST IN 24-48H AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 17.9N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 18.6N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.1N 146.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 19.5N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-07-26 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261431 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE FEATURES TRYING TO FORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT. FLOSSIE STILL HAS SOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. ASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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