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Remnants of DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 272032 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THUS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-27 18:18:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271618 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 CORRECTED FOR CPHC HEADER INFORMATION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17. THE STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER HFOTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-07-27 16:57:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271457 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 DORIAN HAS A VERY DISORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DRY AIR MASS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DORIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM SOON. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. ALTERNATIVELY...SINCE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED... DORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...OR 280/20. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING. A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.5N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.9N 55.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.5N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.2N 63.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-27 16:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17. THE STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER HNLTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-07-27 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 FLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL EYE A LITTLE BEFORE 0600 UTC...AND GLIMPSES OF THAT FEATURE HAVE BECOME APPARENT IN RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT. FLOSSIE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS HEADED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR BEGIN TO WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FLOSSIE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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