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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-07-10 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100837 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY 42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

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Re: Like the discussion of pros and cons

2013-07-10 09:49:25| Wireless - Topix.net

The cellular providers have worked very hard to try to choke off municipal and community wifi so I can certainly imagine that they would not like an expansion of open access via prime spectrum.

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-07-10 04:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100254 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE PLANE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR EVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THAT WILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICAL INTEGRITY. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND STRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. ABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE... 285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BASED ON AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A SHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.6N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.6N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAND 48H 12/0000Z 22.6N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-07-09 23:04:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092104 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.2N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-07-09 17:07:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091507 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND CHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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