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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-08-05 10:58:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050858 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED 40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON A WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. HENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER TODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS BELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression GIL Forecast Discussion Number 24

2013-08-05 10:56:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

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Tropical Depression GIL Forecast Discussion Number 23

2013-08-05 04:32:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-08-05 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050230 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-08-04 22:58:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042058 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LOCATED A BIT SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR IF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW HAS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THERE IS STILL A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STORM...DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 40 KT. THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST. HENRIETEE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT. HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESSENED THIS CYCLE...WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.2N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.2N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 12.5N 129.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.1N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 13.9N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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