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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-25 04:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER SUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-24 16:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241431 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT 1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER... DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C SSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-24 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240841 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER FORWARD MOTION THAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE TYPICALLY RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 13.9N 28.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-10 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102035 TCDAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL 12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-10 17:02:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101502 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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