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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-08-06 04:31:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 HENRIETTE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS EVENING WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE GROWING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WITH WHAT RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL PRESENT ON THE LATEST PASSES. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW... HENRIETTE WILL BE HEADING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND ACROSS COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELYING ON A BLEND OF THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE AFTER THAT TIME...CAUSING THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.5N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.4N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.6N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.6N 134.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.3N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.9N 139.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 17.1N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-08-05 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052034 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE... WITH RECENT HINTS OF AN EYE. AN EARLIER 1414 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A MID-LEVEL EYE WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD OF HENRIETTE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HENRIETTE WILL BE CROSSING A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS THAT WILL LIKELY SLOW OR HALT THE STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD... COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IF HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. HENRIETTE HAS MADE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. IT HAS ALSO GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8 KT. HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD IN THE BRISK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.7N 134.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression GIL Forecast Discussion Number 26

2013-08-05 22:31:43| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-08-05 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051434 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT...A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. HENRIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/4 KT. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND STAY ON THAT GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF HENRIETTE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS HENRIETTE MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DURING THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT WHEN THE CYCLONE TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MOVES ALONG THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IF HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. CONVERSELY...IF HENRIETTE IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.1N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.6N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 14.7N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.6N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.9N 137.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 17.0N 146.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression GIL Forecast Discussion Number 25

2013-08-05 16:33:12| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

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