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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm GIL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-08-04 04:38:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
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Tropical Storm GIL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-08-03 22:34:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-08-03 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032031 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS NOW CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENT CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 31.7N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 04/0600Z 33.0N 75.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-03 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE GFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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