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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 51
2015-10-27 15:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to gale force. With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate in a few days. The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Global models show a low-level ridge building to the north of the system over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow. The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus. For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2015-10-27 15:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-27 15:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 the center of OLAF was located near 26.7, -135.1 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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ep4ep192015
Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Public Advisory Number 51
2015-10-27 15:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ...OLAF BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 135.1W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 135.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Thursday. Gale-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Olaf. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 51
2015-10-27 15:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271433 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 135.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 135.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 135.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OLAF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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