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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 49

2015-10-27 03:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 ...OLAF WEAKENS AS IT RE-ENTERS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 137.4W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 137.4 West. Olaf is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and Tuesday. A turn toward the south and southwest is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Olaf is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Tuesday and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 49

2015-10-27 03:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 137.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 137.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 137.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 21

2015-10-20 04:59:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200259 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 Olaf has maintained a small pinhole eye with a diameter of no more than 10 n mi. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T6.0/115 kt from TAFB, UW-CIMSS ADT, and the NHC AODT algorithm at 20/0000Z. However, since that time the eye has warmed a little and a ring of cloud tops colder than -75C has developed around the eye, so the intensity has been nudged slightly higher to 120 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/09 kt. Olaf is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then turn northwestward toward a developing weakness in the ridge on days 2 and 3. By 96 and 120 hours, a series of fast-moving shortwave troughs embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to gradually create a break in the mid-level ridge between 145W-150W longitude, allowing Olaf to move northward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC model guidance is in much better agreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours ago, and even the UKMET model has shifted eastward and is now on the east side of the guidance envelope at 96 and 120 hours. The official forecast track lies a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and follows the consensus models TVCE and GFEX. There has been slight flattening of the CDO in the northwestern quadrant caused by some light to moderate northwesterly mid-level shear as noted in recent UW-CIMSS shear analyses, which could inhibit intensification some in the short term. However, some additional strengthening is still likely over the next day or so since Olaf will be affected by deep-layer shear of 5 kt or less and be over 29C SSTs. As mentioned in the previous advisory, there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that can not be forecast more than a few hours in advance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate a peak of 125 kt at 12-36 hours, followed by a slow decay by 48-72 as Olaf begins to move slowly over slightly cooler SSTs and into a moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear regime. The official intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus, but below the LGEM and SHIPS forecasts, which bring Olaf to just below category 5 strength in 36-48 hours. With Olaf moving into the central North Pacific basin within the next six hours or so, this will be the last advisory from NHC. Future information on Olaf can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900Z). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 10.1N 139.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 10.4N 140.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 11.1N 142.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.0N 143.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 15.4N 146.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 18.3N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 20.9N 146.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2015-10-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200255 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) 29(66) 3(69) X(69) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 2(35) 1(36) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 8(30) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 3(28) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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