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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-20 04:55:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OLAF MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 the center of OLAF was located near 10.1, -139.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 21
2015-10-20 04:55:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200254 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OLAF MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 139.5W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 139.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast tonight and on Tuesday. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Olaf. Future information on Olaf can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP5, WMO header WTPA35 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 21
2015-10-20 04:50:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200250 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 139.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 139.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 139.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 10.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.1N 142.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 143.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 146.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 146.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 146.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 139.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OLAF. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OLAF CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900Z UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/CPHC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane OLAF Graphics
2015-10-19 23:09:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2015 20:32:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2015 21:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-10-19 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192032 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 Olaf has continued to rapidly intensify today. The hurricane has a classical appearance on satellite imagery with a small, clear eye surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of -70C to -80C. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS were T6.0/115 kt, and these are the basis for the initial intensity. Olaf has strengthened 45 kt in the last 24 hours, and some additional strengthening is still possible in the next day or two. However, there could also be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are not accounted for here. The new NHC forecast shows a peak of 125 kt at 12 h to 36 h and then a slow decay as the cyclone begins to move over slightly cooler SSTs and into a drier environment later in the period. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to the FSU Superensemble. The initial motion estimate is 275/10, as Olaf continues to move westward to the south of a mid-level ridge centered near 30N/140W. This ridge will gradually weaken as a trough advances over the north-central Pacific, and this will allow Olaf to finally begin gaining some latitude as it gradually turns northwestward and then northward during the forecast period. The UKMET model still is on the left side of the guidance envelope for the first 48 hours, but has shifted toward a sharper northward turn after that time. This puts the GFS and ECMWF now on the left side of the guidance envelope. Overall, the new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and is still left of the consensus. The official forecast is between the UKMET and the rest of the guidance in the first 48 hours, and then lies along the left side of the track model envelope at days 3 through 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 10.0N 138.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 10.3N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 10.9N 141.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 11.7N 143.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.6N 144.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 14.7N 146.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.7N 147.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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