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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics

2015-10-27 09:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 08:37:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 08:50:48 GMT

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 50

2015-10-27 09:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Olaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly shear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and the remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a recent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global models indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and most likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later today, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two. The overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt. However, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in about a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level flow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the north of Olaf. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and it follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50

2015-10-27 09:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-27 09:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 the center of OLAF was located near 26.4, -136.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 50

2015-10-27 09:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ...OLAF EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 136.1W ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 136.1 West. Olaf is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the the west-southwest is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today or early Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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