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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 50
2015-10-27 09:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 136.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 136.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 136.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics
2015-10-27 04:03:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 02:39:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 03:03:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 49
2015-10-27 03:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270238 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 Olaf has become less organized over the past several hours. The associated convection has decreased and has been displaced northeast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear. In addition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value. A combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new convection does not form near the center. The new forecast is an update of the previous CPHC forecast. The initial motion is 060/16. Olaf is currently being steered by a strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge building in its wake to the north of Olaf. As Olaf weakens and becomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant steering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and eventually southwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2015-10-27 03:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-27 03:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF WEAKENS AS IT RE-ENTERS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 the center of OLAF was located near 26.3, -137.4 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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