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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-09 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Sergio was located near 16.9, -126.5 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 42

2018-10-09 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Sergio. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 126.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Sergio and its remnants is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico as well as the Southern Plains and Ozarks of the United States through Sunday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

2018-10-09 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092054 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) X(49) X(49) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 46(50) 12(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 9 14(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 130W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 42

2018-10-09 22:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092053 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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