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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 40
2018-10-09 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 090836 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-09 04:42:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 02:42:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 02:42:55 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 39
2018-10-09 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090241 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye. This primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory. Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures. Beyond that period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce further weakening and at a faster rate. Toward the end of the week, Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days. At which time, the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt. Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2018-10-09 04:40:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090240 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 30(46) X(46) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 38(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 4 9(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 21(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-09 04:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Sergio was located near 16.0, -128.6 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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