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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 44
2018-10-10 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 124.9W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 44
2018-10-10 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-10 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 02:39:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 02:39:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 43
2018-10-10 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 The GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar orbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud pattern during the past 6 hours. Deep convection persists in the north semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the southern portion is comprised of fragmented bands. A blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much, supports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. Very little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12 hours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward, statistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through the 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California Sur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the Gulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2018-10-10 04:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) X(47) X(47) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 42(62) X(62) X(62) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 3 19(22) 43(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 24 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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