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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-10 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Sergio was located near 17.5, -125.6 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 43
2018-10-10 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Sergio. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 43
2018-10-10 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-09 22:56:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 20:56:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 21:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 42
2018-10-09 22:55:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092055 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Days of slow movement and cold water upwelling appear to have finally taken a toll on Sergio. Cloud top temperatures on the west side of the cyclone have warmed considerably since this morning, and microwave imagery indicates that Sergio's eyewall is no longer fully closed. Dvorak-based intensity estimates have decreased accordingly and now support an initial intensity of only 60 kt. A recent partial ASCAT overpass also showed maximum winds of only 50-55 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and these data also support making Sergio a tropical storm. The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward, or 060/8 kt. No important changes were made to the track forecast, which is merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm will likely continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few days, before approaching the Baja California peninsula on Friday. The NHC forecast remains near the track consensus at all times and confidence in the track forecast is high. Now that Sergio is moving a little faster, it has a chance to move over slightly warmer waters during the next few hours. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that little additional weakening is likely for the next day or so. Beyond 36 h, faster weakening is still possible as the storm reaches much colder waters and the shear over the tropical storm increases. Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after Sergio makes its final landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico, though a 96 h point remnant low is maintained again in this advisory to represent the inland movement of Sergio. The NHC forecast is essentially an average of the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at all forecast hours. The biggest hazard associated with Sergio and its remnants will likely be heavy rain that will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Southern Plains through Sunday. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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