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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 38
2018-10-08 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...SERGIO DRIFTING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 128.5W ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 128.5 West. Sergio is toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2018-10-08 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082039 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) X(39) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 15N 125W 34 4 8(12) 7(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 16(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 38
2018-10-08 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082038 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 70 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-08 16:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 14:48:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 15:34:48 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 37
2018-10-08 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Sergio's structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24 hours. A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio's giant eye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands. Despite upwelling that is presumably occuring beneath the slow moving hurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours, and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 80 kt, which also agrees with a 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. As long as Sergio can maintain its annular structure in an environment of negligible shear, only very gradual weakening is expected, despite presumably cooling waters beneath the cyclone associated with its slow movement. The ECMWF and GFS forecast that the shear will begin to increase in about 24 to 36 hours, and the cyclone will also be reaching much cooler waters shortly after that time. A faster rate of weakening is therefore anticipated beyond 48 h, in line with the latest intensity consensus, and Sergio is forecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches northwestern Mexico in a few days. The cyclone should weaken quickly after landfall, and will likely dissipate over the high terrain of mainland Mexico, though a 5 day remnant low point is still shown for continuity purposes. Sergio is moving very little right now, and the slow motion will likely continue during the day today. By tonight, a large trough centered over the southwestern United States will cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some uncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Only minor changes were made to the official track forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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