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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-10 13:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 17.7, -124.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 44A
2018-10-10 13:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101131 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 44
2018-10-10 10:43:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates. Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10 kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2018-10-10 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 36(54) X(54) X(54) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 60(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 4 72(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 20N 120W 50 X 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-10 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 17.5, -124.9 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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