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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 39
2018-10-09 04:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, and this general motion should continue during the next several days with an increase in forward speed commencing on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 39
2018-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 090239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-08 22:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 20:41:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 21:34:41 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 38
2018-10-08 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082040 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Sergio still consists almost entirely of a solid ring of deep convection surrounding a very large eye. A pair of timely ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC show that the hurricane wind field remains very symmetric with a large RMW. Although we wouldn't expect that instrument to capture the true magnitude of the hurricane's maximum winds, the data does suggest that the winds have decreased at least a little since this morning. UW-CIMSS SATCON values have also decreased, so the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 75 kt. The hurricane is moving very slowly northward, around 3 kt. There has been no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast and Sergio should still accelerate northeastward in a day or so, approaching the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week. Nearly all of the models have shifted a little toward the south beyond 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction as well, but now lies just north of the multi-model consensus. In the short-term, Sergio is still forecast to gradually weaken while it moves very little and continues to upwell cold waters. Beyond 24 h, the hurricane should reach additional cooler waters to the north, which should cause additional gradual weakening. In general, the intensity guidance is forecasting Sergio to maintain its intensity a little longer than previously forecast, so the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher at 48 h and 72 h. It's worth noting that the hurricane would likely maintain its intensity longer if it moves a little farther south over warmer waters, and any further adjustments southward to the track forecast could have implications on the intensity forecast. By Friday afternoon, the cyclone should have reached the Baja California peninsula and more rapid weakening should follow. Although the low-level center of Sergio will likely quickly dissipate after reaching mainland Mexico, its mid-level remnants and moisture will continue northeastward, potentially causing heavy rainfall across parts of the southwestern United States. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.7N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-08 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO DRIFTING NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Sergio was located near 15.7, -128.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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