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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 26
2018-10-05 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-05 17:03:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 15:03:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 15:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-10-05 17:00:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051500 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 GOES-16 images and a 1054 UTC ATMS microwave overpass indicate that Sergio's 25 n mi eye has become a bit ragged this morning, and has continued to cool. Despite the eye's irregularity, the inner core convection is still intact and is producing very cold (-76C) cloud tops. Primarily due to the eye adjustment temperature, however, the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as a recent SATCON analysis, have again decreased to 95-100 kt, and the initial intensity is subsequently lowered to 100 kt. Although due to the possibility of unpredicted inner core structure changes in the short term which could cause Sergio to strengthen again, the current weakening trend is expected to continue through day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing oceanic temperatures and into a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere. The statistical intensity guidance as well as the large-scale models show increasing southwesterly shear entering the picture after 72 hours. This should also aid in the forecast weakening trend. The official forecast is just an update of the previous one and follows the NOAA-HCCA consensus and is just above the Florida State Superensemble. Sergio is moving a little left of the previous 6-hr motion...now westward, or 280/7 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours is expected as high pressure located north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands builds to the north of Sergio. Over the weekend, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is forecast as the aforementioned mid-level high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over the southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond the 72 hour period, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow should induce a northeastward accelerated motion through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is adjusted a little toward the south of the last advisory through 72 hours to agree more with the various consensus models, but is quite similar in motion and forward speed beyond that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.9N 121.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-05 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 5 the center of Sergio was located near 15.9, -121.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 25
2018-10-05 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051448 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 ...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 121.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 121.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday followed by a turn back to the west on Sunday. Afterward, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the middle of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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