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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-10-04 10:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 377 WTPZ21 KNHC 040850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-04 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 02:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 03:34:12 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-04 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 932 WTPZ41 KNHC 040236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio is quite the sight tonight over the eastern Pacific with a large central dense overcast and mesovortices observed within the well-defined eye. Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB both support a slightly higher initial wind speed of 115 kt on this advisory, which is a good compromise between lower microwave estimates but higher ADT values. Notably, Sergio is the record most 8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season- breaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the eastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971. Further strengthening is possible during the next day or so while the shear is forecast to remain low and the water is quite warm. After that time, a combination of cooling waters and higher shear should generally cause Sergio to weaken. This will probably be an unsteady process, however, since eyewall cycles are also likely over the next few days. Overall, the hurricane should be on a weakening trend, and that is the NHC forecast, very similar to the previous one, and a bit higher than the model consensus. Sergio is moving northwest or 315/8. This motion should gradually bend toward the west over the next day or two as the steering flow changes from a ridge near Mexico to a building ridge to the northwest of the hurricane. Sergio could turn to the northwest early next week as the hurricane comes under the influence of a deepening trough over the far eastern Pacific and southwestern United States. The model guidance is in excellent agreement during the next few days, and no significant changes were required to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 118.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-10-04 04:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 540 FOPZ11 KNHC 040235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 86 14(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 17 76(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 120W 64 2 71(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 19(24) 53(77) 6(83) 2(85) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 7(46) 1(47) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) 1(27) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 16(44) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-04 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO BECOMES THE EIGHTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 3 the center of Sergio was located near 13.8, -118.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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