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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2018-10-04 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 15N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 29(35) 38(73) 14(87) 3(90) 1(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 19(49) 4(53) 1(54) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 13(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 4(27) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-04 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 4 the center of Sergio was located near 15.5, -119.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 22

2018-10-04 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 ...SERGIO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 119.9W ABOUT 830 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 119.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the west-northwest and then toward the west is expected on Friday and over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 22

2018-10-04 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042032 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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