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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-05 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 20:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 20:38:48 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-10-05 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Sergio has become a little better organized. Eyewall cloud temperatures have once again cooled, and the ragged, cloud-filled eye has warmed during the past 6 hours. Accordingly, the subjective and objective T-numbers support increasing the initial intensity to 105 kt for this advisory. As mentioned in this morning's discussion, unforeseen short term inner-core structure changes could cause some intensity fluctuations. Since the environment is forecast to remain favorable during the next 24 hours or so, little change in strength is forecast, and again, the cyclone could become a little stronger than reflected in the forecast. Beyond this period, gradual weakening is expected through day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing sea-surface temperatures and into a more stable surrounding environment. The Decay-SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale models, show increasing southwesterly shear disrupting Sergio's outflow pattern after 72 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous package, and is just above the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models and below the statistical intensity aids. Sergio's motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt within the mid-level steering flow produced by a building high pressure system located north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By early next week, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest to north-northwest is forecast as the aforementioned mid-level high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over the southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond day 3, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow should induce a northeastward accelerated motion through day 5. The NHC forecast is again adjusted south of the last advisory through 48 hours, and is close to the various multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 122.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-10-05 22:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 120W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 27 64(91) 7(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 2 55(57) 32(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 125W 64 X 21(21) 47(68) 4(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 32(44) 7(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-05 22:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 5 the center of Sergio was located near 15.7, -122.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 26
2018-10-05 22:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 ...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 122.3W ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 122.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. By early next week, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest. A gradual turn toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in Sergio's intensity is expected during the next 24 hours or so. Afterward, slow weakening is forecast into early next week, but Sergio is still expected to remain a hurricane through the middle of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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