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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-04 10:52:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 08:52:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 09:34:14 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-04 10:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 230 WTPZ41 KNHC 040851 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio's intensity is estimated to have increased just a little more this morning, and it remains a powerful category 4 hurricane. Subjective Dvorak estimates are T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and T6.0/115 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is raised to 120 kt, which is a blend of these numbers and very close to the latest objective ADT estimate. Sergio's maximum winds are expected to change little over the next 12-24 hours, and the hurricane's intensity could very well be modulated by difficult-to-forecast internal processes such as eyewall replacement cycles. After 48 hours, an increase in shear and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should result in some weakening, especially when Sergio moves more slowly at the end of the forecast period and possibly upwells some cooler water from below. The updated NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward during the first 48 hours to follow the latest consensus aids, but no changes were made to the previous forecast beyond 48 hours. The hurricane's initial motion is northwestward, or 320/7 kt, with Sergio located along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge extending westward from Mexico. This ridge is expected to build westward and connect to another mid-level ridge located near the central Pacific Ocean, forcing Sergio to turn westward, or even south of due west, between 36-72 hours. By days 4 and 5, a large trough near the west coast of the United States should have greater influence, causing Sergio to slow down and turn northward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, although a notable southward shift among the guidance, especially from the ECMWF, required a bit of a southward shift in the official forecast as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.4N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-04 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 4 the center of Sergio was located near 14.4, -118.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 20
2018-10-04 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 425 WTPZ31 KNHC 040850 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 ...SERGIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 118.8W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 118.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-04 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 551 FOPZ11 KNHC 040850 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 69 21(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 35(46) 38(84) 3(87) 3(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 43(51) 3(54) 1(55) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 2(30) X(30) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 7(20) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 15(51) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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