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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 25

2018-10-05 16:46:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051446 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Sergio Graphics

2018-10-05 10:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 08:55:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 08:55:43 GMT

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 24

2018-10-05 10:54:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050854 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 Sergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but there have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep convection. Despite that observation, all available intensity estimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory intensity is therefore set at 105 kt. The gradual weakening trend Sergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. An increase in shear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble. Sergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Northerly flow behind a mid-level trough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will likely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC forecast continues to reflect that scenario. After 48 hours, a break in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio to turn toward the north by days 3-4. Another shortwave trough is then expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other major track models, have come into better agreement on this acceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a little faster than the previous one at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2018-10-05 10:54:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050854 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 16(21) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 4 27(31) 47(78) 15(93) 2(95) 1(96) X(96) 15N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 27(60) 6(66) 3(69) X(69) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 7(15) 19(34) 25(59) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-05 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 5 the center of Sergio was located near 16.0, -121.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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