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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-10-06 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 Sergio has maintained a 25-30-nmi wide eye this evening, and a ring of cold cloud tops has cooled around the well-defined eye. Satellite intensity estimates range from T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB to T5.9/122 kt from ADT and a T6.0/115 kt NHC objective T-number, so the intensity has been bumped up to 110 kt for this advisory. Upper-level outflow and the overall convective pattern have both improved since the previous advisory while Sergio has lost latitude and moved over warmer waters. The motion is now southwestward, or 235/06 kt. Sergio's recent southwestward motion is forecast to be short lived, with a return to a west-southwestward to westward motion expected within the next 12 hours. The deep-layer ridge to the north of Sergio is forecast to become more narrow due to a passing shortwave trough, but it is basically expected to remain intact. This feature will steer the hurricane slowly westward through Sunday. By Monday, however, a stronger trough is forecast by the global models to drop southward off the coasts of California and Baja California, causing a significant weakening and erosion of the western portion of the ridge. This is expected to result in Sergio turning slowly northeastward on Monday, and accelerate on days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to consensus models TVCE and NOAA-HCCA. Other than very brief intrusions of dry mid-level air and possible upwelling beneath the hurricane due to its slow forward speed, there do not appear to be any other negative factors that would significantly disrupt Sergio's intensity for the next 36-48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to induce a steady weakening trend after the cyclone begins accelerating toward the northeast, and on days 4 and 5 passing over the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Rosa. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near an average of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 15.3N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-10-06 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060231 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 120W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 30(47) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 71 28(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 7 77(84) 8(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 125W 64 1 57(58) 15(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 1(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-06 04:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 5 the center of Sergio was located near 15.3, -122.7 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 27
2018-10-06 04:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 ...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 122.7W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A motion toward the west-southwest and west is forecast to begin Saturday morning and continue through Saturday night. A motion toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday, followed by a slow weakening trend on Sunday and Monday. However, Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-10-06 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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