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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-10-04 16:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 543 WTPZ41 KNHC 041444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective Dvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt). While some slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud top temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to once again close off this dry air channel. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 120 kt. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly lower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus aids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or below approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to above 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity appears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the end of the forecast. Sergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level ridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico. The initial motion is 320/8 kt. Objective track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in response to a second ridge which builds in from the west. Guidance remains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back northeastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts northward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western North America. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward thereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the guidance. This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of the ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-10-04 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 506 FOPZ11 KNHC 041441 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 41(63) 24(87) 2(89) 2(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 32(52) 3(55) 1(56) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 10(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 24(33) 10(43) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-04 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...STEADY-STATE SERGIO SWIRLING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 4 the center of Sergio was located near 15.0, -119.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 21
2018-10-04 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 120 WTPZ31 KNHC 041441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 ...STEADY-STATE SERGIO SWIRLING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 119.3W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-10-04 16:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 490 WTPZ21 KNHC 041440 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ONDERLINDE/CANGIALOSI
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