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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-10-03 04:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 947 FOPZ11 KNHC 030237 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 21(22) 70(92) 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 60(61) 23(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 34(34) 29(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 23(58) 3(61) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-03 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Sergio was located near 11.8, -115.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 15

2018-10-03 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 505 WTPZ31 KNHC 030236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 115.8W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 115.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-10-03 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 504 WTPZ21 KNHC 030236 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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