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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-03 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 3 the center of Sergio was located near 12.3, -116.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 16

2018-10-03 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 273 WTPZ31 KNHC 030846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 ...SERGIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 116.7W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-10-03 10:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 813 WTPZ21 KNHC 030846 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-10-03 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 761 WTPZ41 KNHC 030238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours, indicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off. It appears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the latest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side of the hurricane. The intensity is held at 100 kt for this advisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed much, although there is a fair spread in those values. The shear is forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should allow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles. Weakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves over more shallow marginally warm waters. Only a small change has been made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the forecast is essentially the same. Sergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as forecast, now 300/9. A west-northwest or northwest track is expected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day or two. Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion. As has been the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the ECMWF/UKMET are on the left side. The consensus has remained quite steady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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