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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-10-02 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 283 WTPZ41 KNHC 022032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Sergio has intensified significantly today. The eye of the hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold convective cloud tops. Outer banding features are also well defined. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to the northeast. The advisory intensity is set, probably conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio over the next few days. That, along with warm waters and a very moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further strengthening. The official forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance model suite. The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous couple of advisory packages. A mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad trough drops in from the northwest. These changes in the steering flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on Wednesday. The official track forecast is is very similar to the previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus. Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2018-10-02 22:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 342 FOPZ11 KNHC 022031 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 64(68) 29(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 56(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 31(55) 4(59) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 14

2018-10-02 22:30:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 881 WTPZ31 KNHC 022030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...SERGIO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 115.1W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 115.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and a northwestward motion is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 14

2018-10-02 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 374 WTPZ21 KNHC 022030 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-02 20:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 11:45 AM PDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Sergio was located near 11.1, -114.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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