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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2014-09-15 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 151437 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

2014-09-15 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CATEGORY 2 EDOUARD MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 27.3, -55.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 17

2014-09-15 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151436 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 ...CATEGORY 2 EDOUARD MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 55.5W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 17

2014-09-15 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151436 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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