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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-09-15 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150854 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsonde released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at 0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a major hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the UW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from the dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an intensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between the data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. Environmental conditions should support some additional intensification during the next couple of days. Modest southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, the hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3 days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching major hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening trend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22C water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, it appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the forecast period. The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turn northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-09-15 10:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 150854 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-15 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 26.9, -54.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 16
2014-09-15 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 ...EDOUARD NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 54.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-09-15 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150853 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 54.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 54.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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