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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-15 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 28.0, -56.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 18
2014-09-15 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 ...EDOUARD ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 56.5W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-09-15 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152032 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 56.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 56.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 56.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 36.8N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.6N 43.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 40.5N 37.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-15 17:11:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 14:38:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 15:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-09-15 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151437 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly symmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improved structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and structure. Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13 kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to its north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA guidance. Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond that time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear should cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropical transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be over sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase of the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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