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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics

2020-09-11 11:15:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 09:15:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 09:24:57 GMT

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 18

2020-09-11 11:11:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110911 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 270SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics

2020-09-11 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 08:42:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 08:42:12 GMT

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-09-11 10:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110840 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a little generous. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that there is still sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early next week. The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Paulette was located near 23.1, -51.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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