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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin Friday night, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-11 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 110250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 40(66) 13(79) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 12(47) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 04:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 240SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-10 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:35:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-10 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Continuous bursts of deep convection have been ongoing to the north and northeast of Paulette's center of circulation, with the cyclone being affected by nearly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear. The highest intensity estimates are Dvorak classifications of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that value remains the initial intensity. The shear should reach its peak magnitude this evening, which is likely to cause Paulette to weaken slightly during the next 24 hours. However, gradual re-strengthening is forecast to begin in about 36 hours, and the rate of intensification is expected to increase in 2 to 3 days when the shear could fall to 10 kt or less, along with a more unstable atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane by day 3 and continue to intensify through the end of the forecast period. As was advertised in the previous forecast package, the new NHC forecast intensities have been bumped up on days 3 through 5 and now lie near or just below the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Paulette's heading over the past 6-12 hours has been toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt. The cyclone's trajectory is expected to oscillate between northwest and west-northwest for the next 4 days, being dictated by the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north and the depth of the steering flow depending on Paulette's intensity. The updated NHC track forecast during this period has been nudged a bit to the north, mostly to account for an adjustment of the initial position. The model guidance all agree that Paulette should turn northward around the western side of a central Atlantic high pressure area by day 5, with the expected hurricane likely to make a tight recurvature near Bermuda. There remains some uncertainty on exactly where that turn will occur, but for now the NHC forecast lies between the tighter-turning ECMWF and HCCA models and the more gradually-turning GFS and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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