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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-10 16:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101438 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep convection which is displaced to the north of the center of circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so, fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) aid. Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... ...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Paulette was located near 21.5, -49.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 101437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 22(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-10 16:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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