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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-10 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 02:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 02:35:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 191 WTNT42 KNHC 100233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3 days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment. In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS, show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn't quite as high as the regional hurricane models. The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt). Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus aids than on the regional hurricane guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 194 FONT12 KNHC 100233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-10 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 20.9, -48.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 48.1W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 48.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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