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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-10 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Paulette was located near 22.1, -50.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 16

2020-09-10 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 50.1W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2020-09-10 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 102033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 18(65) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 14(32) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-09-10 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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