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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-07 22:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MARCHES ON WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED OR STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 35.9, -49.9 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 46
2018-10-07 22:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 072035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 ...LESLIE MARCHES ON WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED OR STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 49.9W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 49.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with Leslie moving across the open central and eastern Atlantic during that time. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or so, and Leslie is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next couple of days. By mid-week, some strengthening is anticipated and Leslie could be near hurricane strength on Wednesday or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 46
2018-10-07 22:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 072035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 50.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 45.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.6N 33.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 27.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-07 16:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 14:52:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 15:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 45
2018-10-07 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 Despite marginal SSTs near 24 deg C, Leslie has persisted with little change in its structure. An average of the UW-CIMSS SATCON and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Although Leslie is currently located in a low-shear environment, GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggests that mid-level humidities are fairly low, and the cyclone should remain over marginal SSTs for the foreseeable future. All of the intensity guidance forecasts little to no intensity change during the next day or so. However, by 36 h, nearly all of the dynamical models, both global and regional, forecast that Leslie will begin to restrengthen. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical models do not forecast much change through day 5. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a little higher to keep it close to the intensity consensus, and I can't rule out that Leslie could become a hurricane again at some point during the coming week. No large changes were made to the NHC track forecast, but this should not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast. Leslie is currently moving with an initial motion of east-southeast, or 115/9 kt. The track model spread is high from the very beginning of the forecast, with the GFS and its associated regional models indicating that Leslie will continue on a similar heading for the next several days, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Leslie will slow down and turn soon turn toward the southeast or south-southeast. The track forecast variance stems from differences in how quickly the models show Leslie separating from a mid-level trough to its north, if at all, and by day 5, the GFS and ECMWF solutions vary by about 750 n mi. At this point, I don't have a good reason to pick one solution over another, and it should be noted that based on the ECMWF ensemble tracks, there is a whole spectrum of possible solutions between these extremes. The NHC track forecast therefore remains near the TVCN and GFEX aids as a course of least regret, but significant changes could be required to future advisories if the track of Leslie becomes more clear. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through tonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 36.6N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 36.2N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 35.4N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 34.2N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 32.6N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 29.1N 36.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 28.5N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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