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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-07 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 36.6, -51.4 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 45
2018-10-07 16:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071448 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 44.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.6N 41.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 180SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 36.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 31.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 28.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 44
2018-10-07 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070848 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 Leslie has not changed much overnight. The storm has several curved bands to the east and north of the center, but a limited amount of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the steady state appearance since the previous ASCAT pass. This estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Leslie will likely fluctuate in strength during the next several days, but it should remain a tropical storm through the forecast period. Although some weakening is possible during the next day or so due to cool 23 to 24 deg C waters, slight re-strengthening is likely after that time when the system moves back over warmer waters and remains in relatively low wind shear conditions. There could be some increase in shear by the end of the forecast period, however, which could result in slight weakening again. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is moving eastward at 10 kt within the mid-latitude westerly flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is expected to amplify some, which should cause the storm to move east-southeastward at a faster pace during the next few days. A slight turn back to the east or east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is likely by the end of the forecast period when the trough weakens. There is a significant amount of spread in the models associated with differences on how fast they expect Leslie to move. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are more than 1000 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one at the end of the period to come in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Given the model spread, the confidence in the long-range track forecast is low at this time. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through tonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 37.2N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 36.1N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 35.1N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 33.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 30.1N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 28.6N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 29.5N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-07 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 37.2, -52.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 44
2018-10-07 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 ...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 52.0W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 52.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the east-southeast is expected to begin later today and continue through the middle of the week, with Leslie moving across the open central and eastern Atlantic during that time. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected, but Leslie is expected to remain a tropical storm during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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