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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-04 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 20:35:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 21:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-10-04 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie has changed little in convective structure today. Visible imagery shows occasional appearances of an eye inside an area of central convection, with a complex of outer bands wrapping around this inner feature. Infrared imagery, though, suggests that the convection is relatively shallow. Despite the lack of change in the convective pattern, scatterometer data shows there have been significant changes in the wind structure. The strongest winds are now in a band about 90-100 n mi from the center, with the winds in the inner core being notably weaker. This suggest the possibility that Leslie is trying to undergo an eyewall replacement, albeit one with a very large outer eyewall. Based on the scatterometer data and slightly decreased satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy, the intensity forecast guidance, or the intensity forecast. While the vertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the next several days. There are major changes to the initial and forecast wind radii based on the scatterometer data and the analyzed initial size. The initial motion is 355/10. In the short term, Leslie will be steered northward between a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone. Beyond 36 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. Overall, the new forecast track is close to the previous track through 48 h, then a little north of the old track after that time. However, there is an increased spread in the guidance in both the track and the forward speed near the end of the forecast period, and confidence is decreasing for this part of the forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 33.3N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.9N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 36.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 36.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 34.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2018-10-04 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 042032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-04 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -57.5 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 34
2018-10-04 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 ...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 57.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 57.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A reduction in forward speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie turning toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Satellite wind data indicate that Leslie is larger than previously reported, and that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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