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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-04 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STILL PACING AROUND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 31.4, -57.1 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 32
2018-10-04 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 865 WTNT33 KNHC 040847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 ...LESLIE STILL PACING AROUND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 57.1W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 57.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A reduction in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie accelerating toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 32
2018-10-04 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 866 WTNT23 KNHC 040847 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 57.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 540SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 57.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-04 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 02:34:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 03:22:03 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2018-10-04 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 768 WTNT43 KNHC 040233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed significantly in structure either. Leslie's cloud pattern is not very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can call that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier today. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold the intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection will reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters. Leslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely the cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By then, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this flow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track models are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward turn and with eastward turn. However, during the last portion of the forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track forecast is not very high. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 30.6N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 32.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 34.2N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 36.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 37.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 36.5N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 35.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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